Excellent insight on the true unemployment number by John Mulkey. Missouri's unemployment rate has doubled in the past 12 months, and this doesn't account for the unemployed who have fallen off the radar from expired benefits, or the self-employed who are no longer earning.
What’s The True Unemployment Number? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that the number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 512,000 for the week ending October 31. This is the lowest since January. So we are in recovery, right?
Not so fast. Here are the real and unreported numbers. The published unemployment rate of 9.8%, while higher than at any time in recent years, doesn’t sound too bad. Doesn’t that mean that we have 90% employment? That’s what politicians would like us to believe. However, the government has created an onerous and confusing system of reporting the numbers—some would suggest for the purpose of keeping the masses in the dark.
If you dig further into the statistics you’ll discover a rarely reported number, what the BLS calls the U-6. That rate includes those who have become discouraged and are no longer actively seeking employment and those who have accepted part-time employment just to have some income. The U-6 number is currently 17%. But it get’s worse.
The BLS, in their infinite wisdom, chooses not to count those who have expended their unemployment benefits—somehow they just don’t count. Those who have been unemployed for more than a year miraculously disappear. Furthermore, the BLS makes no attempt to report those who are self-employed, like Realtors®, builders, mortgage brokers, subcontractors, and others whose income has dramatically declined or stopped altogether. Add those to the total and we’re at 25% or more.
What we need to consider when anticipating a recovery is that more than 15 million Americans have lost their jobs, and millions more have lost or reduced incomes; that initial jobless claims have remained above 500,000 for the past year; and that far from creating jobs, we’re still hemorrhaging them. Until we are CREATING more jobs than are being lost, the economy cannot recover.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Lina Robertson Jones
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Ozark, MO, 65721 |
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About the author: I am full-time REALTOR® with RE/MAX Solutions in Springfield, MO, and a member of the Greater Springfield Board of REALTORS®. I have helped hundreds of families in the Springfield, Nixa, Republic and Ozark real estate markets, whether buying a home, or selling a home. Visit my website at www.ozarks-realestate.com to search for All Springfield MO Area MLS listings. Want to know what our market is like? My website is also an excellent resource for current Springfield MO Area Real Estate Market Reports, as well as current market reports for Ozark, Nixa, Republic, and Rogersville.
thanks for the info. good post
tony
I like your avitar.
Lina - I'm glad you re-blogged this because I missed it the first time around, it's a very informative post.
Tony - thanks for stopping by.
Darrell - thanks!
Michelle - John always has really informative posts.
Makes sense, we are adding plenty of gov't jobs. However not in most states. Its more likely nearer 15%. I see people dropping out all the time. People here are used to being poor so the drop off is not like other places.